Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation using CMIP6 models (case study: Damghan, Iran)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 M.Sc. of Water Resource Management and Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Water Engineering and Hydraulic Structures, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.

Abstract

Nowadays, one of the most fundamental challenges for human society and the natural environment is climate change. Human activities play an important role in increasing the temperature in different temporal-spatial scales. In this research, the sixth report scenarios of climate change by IPCC were used to evaluate the effects of climate change on the Temperature and Precipitation in Damghan, Iran. Climate change occurrence was predicted by using the HadGEM3 and CanESM5 models under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios. The rainfall data from the Damghan synoptic meteorological station and Damghan rain gauge station have been used for calibration and validation for the 2000-2020 period. Then, a prediction was made for the 2020-2040 period. To predict the future temperatures (2020- 2040), minimum and maximum temperature data from the Damghan synoptic station was used. LARS-WG6 software was applied for the statistical downscaling of climatic data. Then, by using the predicted temperatures and rainfall under the climate change scenarios, the outflow intensity and pollution load of the reservoir water for 2020-2040 was presented. Considering the increase in the pollution load in some seasons and months and the downstream use of water, the construction of a water treatment plant and prevention of pollutants from entering the urban drinking water network is suggested. If management methods are planned and applied, the water quality of the dam reservoir can be improved.

Keywords

References

Allen, M. et al., 2019. Technical Summary: Global warming of 1.5 C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.
Andrews, T., Forster, P.M., Gregory, J.M., 2009. A surface energy perspective on climate change. Journal of Climate, 22(10): 2557-2570.
Bazrafshan Moghaddam, M., Golian, S., 2016. Evaluation of Climate Change’s Effect on Precipitation and Temperature in Different Parts of Iran, 122 pp.
Chen, H., Guo, J., Zhang, Z., Xu, C.-Y., 2013. Prediction of temperature and precipitation in Sudan and South Sudan by using LARS-WG in future. Theoretical and applied climatology, 113: 363-375.
Chen, J. et al., 2019. Bias correcting climate model multi-member ensembles to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. Climatic Change, 153: 361-377.
Dinpashoh, Y., Jahanbakhsh-Asl, S., Rasouli, A., Foroughi, M., Singh, V., 2019. Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration (case study: west and NW of Iran). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136: 185-201.
Eghtetaf, M., Dahrazma, B., Zarghami, M., Saghravani, S.F., 2015. Impact of climate change on the quantity and quality of surface water resources (case study: Balikhli Chay River), 113 pp.
Goodarzi, M.R., Abedi, M.J., Pour, M.H., 2022. Climate change and trend analysis of precipitation and temperature: A case study of Gilan, Iran, Current Directions in Water Scarcity Research. Elsevier, pp. 561-587.
Hassanzadeh, M.J., Dehghanipour, A., Attari, J., Iraqinejad, S., 2012. The effect of climate change on river runoff in Urmia watershed, 9th International Congress of Civil Engineering.
Khayat, A., Amirabadizadeh, M., Pourreza-Bilondi, M., Khozeymehnehad, H., 2020. Study Temperature and Precipitation Parameters under the Effect of Climate Change (Case study: Birjand Plain). Irrigation and Water Engineering, 11(1): 200-210.
Kikstra, J.S. et al., 2022. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures. Geoscientific Model Development, 15(24): 9075-9109.
Kwawuvi, D. et al., 2023. Potential catastrophic consequences for rising temperature trends in the Oti River Basin, West Africa. Frontiers in Climate, 5: 1184050.
Mendez, M., Maathuis, B., Hein-Griggs, D., Alvarado-Gamboa, L.-F., 2020. Performance evaluation of bias correction methods for climate change monthly precipitation projections over Costa Rica. Water, 12(2): 482.
Milentijević, N. et al., 2022. Assessment of observed and projected climate changes in Bačka (Serbia) using trend analysis and climate modeling.
Nazari-Sharabian, M., Taheriyoun, M., 2022. Climate change impact on water quality in the integrated Mahabad Dam watershed-reservoir system. Journal of Hydro-environment Research, 40: 28-37.
Nerem, R.S. et al., 2018. Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 115(9): 2022-2025.
Nie, S., Fu, S., Cao, W., Jia, X., 2020. Comparison of monthly air and land surface temperature extremes simulated using CMIP5 and CMIP6 versions of the Beijing Climate Center climate model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 140: 487-502.
Node Farahani, M.A., Rasekhi, A., Parmas, B., Keshvari, A., 2018. The effects of climate change on temperature, precipitation and drought in the the future Shadegan basin. Iran-Water Resources Research, 14(3): 125-139.
Sellers, S., Ebi, K.L., Hess, J., 2019. Climate change, human health, and social stability: addressing interlinkages. Environmental health perspectives, 127(04): 045002.
Steele-Dunne, S. et al., 2008. The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland. Journal of hydrology, 356(1-2): 28-45.
Sun, W. et al., 2021. The assessment of global surface temperature change from 1850s: the C-LSAT2. 0 ensemble and the CMST-interim datasets. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 38: 875-888.
Zarrin, A., Dadashi-rodbari, A., Salehabadi, N., 2021. Projected temperature anomalies and trends in different climate zones in Iran based on CMIP6. Iranian Journal of Geophysics, 15(1): 35-54.
Journal of Hydraulic and Water Engineering
Volume 1, Issue 2
January 2024
Pages 163-177

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics